当 AI 能自己编写代码开发产品的时候,产品经理还剩下什么?
Josh Elman 用 LinkedIn 与 Twitter 的亲历说明:AI 反转了开发循环,却没有替团队决定什么值得做;产品经理真正交付的是一套可理解、可复述、能由用户行为验证的共同故事。
随着大模型和辅助编程工具的普及,开发软件原型的门槛被大幅拉低。工程师可以用自然语言快速生成可运行的界面与逻辑,不少人因此产生疑问:如果代码生成已经如此低廉,传统意义上的产品经理(PM)是否正在失去存在的必要?
a16z 的 Josh Elman 对此给出了截然相反的判断。他的核心观察非常明确:代码的构建成本确实在大幅下降,但做出正确产品判断的成本,一分钱都没有降低。
这不是抽象判断。Josh 早年在 RealNetworks 负责 RealPlayer 的产品与工程团队时,商业团队曾建议每次播放器启动都展示广告,并拿出 Excel 表格说明能赚多少钱。他知道这会伤害产品,却说不清该如何用产品判断反驳财务预测。
后来,Reid Hoffman 在 LinkedIn 的面试中问他:「产品经理产出的制品(artifact)究竟是什么?」Josh 当时回答是规格说明书(spec)。加入 LinkedIn 后,他还为「社交网络里的招聘平台」写过一份 120 页的规格,详细定义体验与需求。
但规格只能描述系统要做什么、完成时要勾掉哪些检查项。多年后 Josh 意识到,PM 真正的 artifact 是一个「故事(story)」:谁在使用产品,它为什么会影响这些人的生活。这个故事不是营销文案,而是一幅团队共同理解的图景;任何人都应当立刻听懂,并能在 PM 不在场时准确复述。它还要回答用户为什么来、每一步有什么感受、哪里应该令人惊喜、哪里可以有意保持平淡。
这也引出了作者对产品经理的核心定义:帮助团队(和公司)把正确的产品交给用户。PM 不是凌驾于团队之上的领导者,而是要理解自己的团队及其在公司整体目标中的位置,协助团队真正把产品交付(ship)出去,并持续判断究竟什么对用户才是「正确(right)」的。
当把东西做出来变得极其容易时,团队面临的最大危险不再是做不出功能,而是以极快的速度制造出大量没人需要、逻辑断裂、用户用完即走的平庸功能。探讨 AI 时代的产品工作,核心在于理解开发循环发生的翻转,以及如何建立真正以用户价值为核心的判断框架。
开发循环的翻转:从漫长推演到原型先行
在传统的软件研发体系中,工程时间非常昂贵。为了避免昂贵的工程资源投入到错误方向,团队在真正编写代码之前,必须先投入大量精力撰写功能规格(spec)、做成本估算(costing)、界定范围(scoping)并完成设计(design)。在这种严谨的前期推演下,团队一年大约只能跑六到八轮完整的开发循环。
引入 AI 编程工具后,这种开发循环发生了根本性翻转:从原先的纸面推演,变成了提出想法(idea)→ 先用 AI 构建(build)→ 上手把玩走查(play with it)→ 再做视觉/UX 与工程设计(visual/UX & engineering design)→ 交付(ship)→ 学习反馈(learn)。
一个可实际操作的原型(prototype),远比停留在口头或文档里的假设推演(what-if)更容易让人做出直观判断。你可以直接上手操作、感受交互的阻滞,从而及早验证想法是否成立。
作为开发循环翻转的另一面,AI 也在改变用户对产品形态的预期:用户开始期待只需描述需要,产品便能交付结果,甚至由后台 agent 完成工作,而不必先学习复杂界面。但这并不意味着所有产品都已经实现了这一形态。
但必须厘清其中的现实边界:演示原型(demo)几乎免费,并不等于可用产品(working product)也是免费的。借助工具几分钟拼出一个原型,与把它打磨成一个稳定、安全、可规模化运行的真实产品之间,依然隔着扎实的工程化工作,仍然需要投入充分的时间与精力。
检验真实使用:Vision 框架与对话日志
当构建原型的阻力被扫平后,产品经理更需要明确判断:用户是否真的在使用产品?作者提出了一个清晰的 Vision 框架。这里的 Vision 并非口号式的使命宣言(mission statement),而是产品对用户端到端的存在理由。该框架包含三个核心维度:
- 根本目的(Purpose):产品究竟为什么存在,解决什么核心问题。例如 LinkedIn 的根本目的就是「寻找与被寻找」(find and be found)。
- 核心动作(Core actions):用户在产品中真正做什么。以 LinkedIn 为例,有些人只是回应主动联系;团队没有强推所有用户每天互动,而是投入大量精力确保个人资料保持准确。即便一年只被找到一两次,只要那一刻价值成立,产品仍然在工作,这依然属于真实使用。
- 使用周期(Cycle):每一种核心动作预期以什么频率发生。
作者特别强调,「是否真的在使用」绝不能用注册用户数、候补名单人数、ARR、消耗的 token 数或 App Store 排名等表面指标来代替。把用户短暂点开应用当成使用毫无意义;团队必须观察的是,那些主动直达产品的人,是否真正完整跑通了核心动作。
在 AI 产品中,检验这种真实使用的窗口变得更加直接:用户与产品的对话记录直接构成了用户旅程的逐字记录。它不是抽象的统计报表,而是真实记录了:
- 用户在未经引导时主动说了什么:他们在完全没有提示时首先尝试表达什么需求;
- 用户在哪一刻放弃并尝试改写:他们在哪里遇到了阻碍,又如何重新表达需求;
- 用户期待产品做到什么,而产品却没有做到:哪些未满足的期望暴露了产品功能与用户预期的落差。
理解了真实使用与用户旅程的本质,团队才能在面对数据异动时,准确诊断产品究竟在哪里脱离了用户的真实生活。
Twitter 的留存危机:把用户扔进空房间讲不出故事
如何通过修正产品叙事来挽救核心指标?早期 Twitter 在爆发式增长期经历的一场真实危机提供了极具说服力的解剖样本。
然而在深入具体案例之前,必须首先厘清新手引导(onboarding)究竟应该服务于谁。在用户光谱的两端,存在两类极端群体:一端是急切用户(eagers),他们带着极其强烈的预设意图而来,无论引导流程多繁琐、界面多难用,都会自己想方设法搞懂并使用;另一端则是随手看看的过客(fly-bys),他们只是偶然点进来看一眼,无论怎么引导都不太可能留存下来。新手引导真正能够转化的,是处于中间那群带着好奇心来探寻价值的人。一个致命的盲区在于,公司员工全员都生活在「急切岛」(eager-land)——他们早已熟知产品的核心价值与内部逻辑,因而绝不能代表新用户的真实视角。
针对这批好奇用户,新手引导究竟应当如何设计?作者指出,onboarding 是用户注意力最集中的讲故事时刻:用户此时已经知道产品存在并愿意尝试,以后很难再获得同等程度的专注注意力。因此,除了邮箱、密码、电话等基础信息外,如果还要求用户提供其他任何内容,团队都应当明确解释为什么要问、它与用户获得的价值有何关系。在此基础上,作者结合自己在多家公司进行 A/B 测试的经历提出了经验主张(主材料并未给出具体实验数据,这属于作者的经验性结论):相比于步数更少但界面密集的复杂大屏,采用更多简单、离散、每一步目标极其明确的小步骤,往往能取得更好的引导效果。虽然更长的流程必然会导致更多人在中途流失退出,但团队绝不应以流程完成率来判断胜负。真正有效的衡量标准,是看最终有多少人在次日或次周主动返回并跑通了核心动作,以及他们是否能够准确向别人说清楚这个产品究竟是什么。
这一洞察对当下的 AI 产品尤为切中要害。许多 AI 应用习惯在用户首次进入时呈现一个空白提示框,附上一句「随便问我任何事」(Ask me anything),这本质上是把理解产品能力的责任完全推给了用户。面对空无一物的输入框,带着好奇心而来的新用户往往陷入迷茫与瘫痪。有效的新手引导应当逐个教授具体能力,让用户亲自跑通至少一个有价值、且最好基于其自身真实数据的用例,切实感知到能力边界与产出价值。
这正是 Josh Elman 在 2009 年底加入 Twitter 时所面对的留存困境。当时主流媒体的大规模报道与名人推荐吸引了数百万人注册,但很多新用户此后没有回来。问题的症结非常根本:人们说不清 Twitter 究竟是什么。
在当时的 Google 搜索联想词中,输入「i don't get...」会出现「i don't get twitter」。这张历史截图直观记录了大众的理解断层,用来证明用户无法说清产品是什么,而不是注册后看到的搜索界面。
而在旧版 onboarding 中,系统在注册后给出「Find your friends」(寻找好友)或「Follow 20 random people」(随机关注 20 个人)等选项。很多新用户直接跳过,随后进入完全空白的主页信息流。他们面对「What's happening?」输入框,既看不到任何动态,也不知道自己该说什么,只能困惑地离开。
为了理顺产品叙事,团队重构了被称为「Learn Flow」的引导流程,按照由浅入深的认知规律带领用户理解产品:
第一步:明确产品承诺。欢迎页开宗明义地告诉用户:「Find out what's happening right now with the people and organizations you care about」(及时发现你所关心的人和机构正在发生什么),在最初始的界面校准认知,明确产品的根本价值。
第二步:认知产品基本单位。页面详细拆解什么是 tweet,明确告知这是一条最多 140 字符、且可包含链接的短消息,让新用户直观理解内容承载的基本单位。
第三步:用单一动作跑通时间线机制。引导页展示出双栏的 timeline 界面:用户在左侧点击 Follow 关注一个账号,右侧立刻实时出现该账号发布的 tweets。通过这一个连贯动作,用户当场理解了「关注账号 → 该账号的 tweets 出现 → 汇聚成我的 timeline」的核心逻辑。引导结束时,用户正式进入的主页不再是空荡荡的毛坯房,而是已经由自己刚刚关注的人所充实的时间线。
作者明确指出,这套 Learn Flow 对用户留存率(retention)的提升,超过了 Twitter 当年上线的任何其他项目。它把重点放在对齐用户心智:通过目标清楚的连续步骤,帮助好奇用户理解产品承诺、认识基本概念,并亲手跑通一次价值闭环。
亲自阅读用户原话:AI 发现模式,但判断不能外包
在前文关于真实使用的探讨中提到,AI 产品与传统软件最大的不同之一,在于用户与系统的交互日志本身就构成了用户旅程的逐字记录(正如前文引述的对话转录框架)。用户在交互中对产品说出的每一句话,都直接反映了未被修饰的真实意图。
在这些原话记录中,团队能够直观看到三个关键切面:用户在未经引导时最先主动表达的需要是什么、在哪些环节因受阻而选择放弃并重新表述,以及用户满心期待产品能够做到、但系统却未曾满足的落差究竟出现在哪里。理解这些真实体验的前提,是产品经理与团队必须亲自去阅读用户的原话,而不是只隔着一层高度抽象的数据指标。
在这个过程中,AI 可以帮助团队浮现以往没有注意到的现象。但团队绝不能把所有对话都交给 AI 生成摘要,更不能让 AI 代替产品经理形成观点。
亲自读这些原始表达、形成自己的判断,并决定产品背后的故事到底是什么,始终是产品管理必须完成的工作与技艺。
影响力的取舍:在代码充裕时代守护完整产品
当人人都有好点子、身旁也都有能编写代码的 agent 时,「该做什么」的讨论重心发生了根本转移:它不再主要是关于工程资源与排期的争论,而是关于优先级的影响力取舍——决策形态从资源匮乏时代的「做这个还是什么都做不了」(this or nothing),变成了「做这个还是做那个」(this or that)。团队必须丢掉「它是否塞得进排期」的惯性,先问「它是否属于这个产品」。
当把功能做出来的门槛降到极低,产品面临的最大危险就是沦为 AI slop:仅仅因为技术上容易实现、代码唾手可得,就把能想到的功能、界面与交互一股脑全塞进产品里,导致整体体验臃肿而破碎。在功能供给泛滥的背景下,产品的品味(taste)、对功能的严谨筛选与策展(curation),以及对一个简洁、协调的完整产品的全局把握,反而变得比以往任何时候都更加关键。
这就要求产品团队在工作节奏中保持清醒:我们可以用 AI 极大加速原型构建,但绝不能加速跳过判断,更不能放弃判断。
面对方向分歧,产品经理不能只说一句「测一下看看」,就把抉择责任推给实验数据。产品经理仍要在创造力与数据之间保持平衡,并为取舍形成自己的判断。
虽然 AI 大幅降低了搭建原型的阻力,但这绝不意味着它拿走了全部工程劳动;把演示继续做成真正可用的产品,依然需要时间、工程投入与产品推敲。
正如 Josh Elman 所强调的,产品经理的核心使命从未动摇:帮助团队(和公司)把真正正确的产品交给用户。当写代码变得越来越便宜,能够抵御把一切都做出来的诱惑、在纷繁可能性中做出清晰取舍、为团队守护正确故事的判断力,才是决定产品生死的最稀缺资产。
构建成本暴跌,但产品判断的成本毫发无损
随着大模型和辅助编程工具的普及,开发软件原型的门槛被大幅拉低。工程师可以用自然语言快速生成可运行的界面与逻辑,不少人因此产生疑问:如果代码生成已经如此低廉,传统意义上的产品经理(PM)是否正在失去存在的必要?
a16z 的 Josh Elman 对此给出了截然相反的判断。他的核心观察非常明确:代码的构建成本确实在大幅下降,但做出正确产品判断的成本,一分钱都没有降低。
Reid Hoffman 曾问 Josh:「产品经理产出的制品(artifact)究竟是什么?」当年他的回答是规格说明书(spec),甚至写过一份 120 页的规格。但多年后他意识到,PM 真正的 artifact 是一个「故事(story)」:谁在使用产品,它为什么会影响这些人的生活。这个故事不是营销文案,而是一幅团队共同理解的图景,让任何人在 PM 不在场时都能准确复述。作者对产品经理的核心定义正是:帮助团队(和公司)把正确的产品交给用户。
开发循环的翻转:从漫长推演到原型先行
当把东西做出来变得极其容易时,团队面临的最大危险不再是做不出功能,而是以极快的速度制造出大量没人需要的平庸功能。探讨 AI 时代的产品工作,核心在于理解开发循环发生的根本性翻转:
检验真实使用:Vision 框架与对话日志
当构建原型的阻力被扫平后,产品经理更需要明确判断:用户是否真的在使用产品?作者提出了清晰的 Vision 框架:
作者特别强调,「是否真的在使用」绝不能用注册用户数、候补名单人数、ARR、消耗的 token 数或 App Store 排名等表面指标来代替。把用户短暂点开应用当成使用毫无意义,团队必须观察主动直达的用户是否完整跑通了核心动作。
在 AI 产品中,检验真实使用的窗口直接体现在对话日志中:用户与产品的对话记录直接构成了用户旅程的逐字记录。它真实反映了三个关键切面:
AI 可以协助发现模式,但产品经理与团队必须亲自阅读用户原话,绝不能把形成判断的工作外包给 AI 摘要。
Twitter 留存危机:不要把用户扔进空房间
2009 年 Josh 加入 Twitter 时面临巨大的留存困境:主流媒体带来了爆发式注册,但很多人此后没有回来,Google 搜索联想词常驻「i don't get twitter」。在旧版注册引导中,用户跳过好友寻找后直接面对空白的「What's happening?」输入框,既看不到任何动态,也不知道自己该说什么,只能困惑离开。
问题的本质在于对用户群体的误读:新手引导真正能够转化的,是处于中间那群带着好奇心来探寻价值的人。急切用户(Eagers)无论多难用都会自己搞懂,随手过客(Fly-bys)怎么引导都无法留存;而公司员工全员生活在「急切岛」,容易忽视好奇用户的认知断层。
为了理顺产品叙事,团队重构了被称为「Learn Flow」的连续引导步骤:
这套 Learn Flow 对留存率的提升超过了 Twitter 当年任何其他项目。对当下的 AI 产品而言,绝不能用一个空白的「Ask me anything」输入框把理解成本全部推给用户,而应当引导好奇用户亲自跑通至少一个基于自身数据的具体用例。
影响力的取舍:在代码充裕时代守护完整产品
当写代码变得极度便宜,团队面临的最大危险就是制造出逻辑断裂的 AI slop:仅仅因为技术上容易实现,就把各种碎片功能全塞进产品里。决策形态从资源匮乏时代的「做这个还是什么都做不了」(this or nothing),转变为「做这个还是做那个」(this or that)的影响力取舍。
品味与取舍,是 AI 时代最稀缺的产品资产:面对方向分歧,产品经理不能只说一句「测一下看看」,就把抉择责任推给实验数据。
正如 Josh Elman 所强调,产品经理的核心使命从未动摇:帮助团队(和公司)把正确的产品交给用户。能够抵御把一切都做出来的诱惑、在纷繁可能性中做出清晰取舍、为团队守护正确故事的判断力,才是决定产品生死的最稀缺资产。
Product Management is still about telling stories

Product management is all about telling stories. So let me share how I think about product management, and how AI has changed it, by telling you one.
The interview question I’ll never forget
I started my career as an engineer at RealNetworks, and in a few years I was responsible for the product and engineering team for RealPlayer. It was a pretty meaningful consumer product at the time - it had hundreds of millions of users, and helped bring audio and video to the early internet. I’d sit in meetings with people over on the business side, who’d suggest ideas like, “We should show an ad every time the player starts.” I knew this wasn’t the right thing to do, but I had no way to argue with their Excel spreadsheets showing how much money we’d make. I wanted to become a real product manager, and concluded I should probably go to business school.
I started business school at Berkeley, and soon after arriving I saw on my former college email list that LinkedIn was hiring. I applied, and found myself in an interview with Reid Hoffman. He sat down and asked me an interview question I’ll never forget:
“So, you want to be a product manager. What is the artifact that a product manager produces?”
He elaborated. Engineers have an artifact: code. Business development has an artifact: signed contracts. Designers make the visual look and the graphics. The CEO has the org chart, the funding plan, and the vision that keeps everyone together. What about a product manager?
I told him that I wasn’t sure product managers really had “artifacts” like that, but that the fundamental thing we do is gather up everything that’s going on and write it down in a spec. The spec is the blueprint. It’s where we define the requirements, and everything we’re going to do, and it becomes one of the most important documents in the company because it unlocks every team to go build from there.
I was clearly nervous. I think he noticed, because he reassured me that it was a fine answer. I ended up getting the job, dropped out of business school to join LinkedIn, and I’ve been thinking about that question ever since.
The evolution from spec to story
Because I gave the wrong answer.
This was still the Waterfall Era of building software. At LinkedIn we were trying to reimagine a jobs platform within a social platform - where hiring managers could see job applications in the context of mutual connections, candidates could see job listings and find ways through their network to get to the front door. During this discovery process, I wrote a 120-page spec defining the entire experience, and what the requirements were.
I’ve thought a lot about it in the years since. Because that spec, obviously, is not the most important artifact. The story is.
The spec describes a system, what it must do, and what boxes must be checked off before it is done. That is not the art of product management. Product management is about telling the story of people who are going to use the product, and why it will matter in their lives. It has to be immediately understandable, by whoever you’re talking to. And it has to be repeatable - people need to be able to pass it around faithfully, without you being in the room.
That is a completely different document, and a completely different job.
Ten years ago I gave a talk about product management, and people still send it to me; which is either flattering, or a sign that the field hasn’t moved. I’ll consider both possibilities. Anyway, the whole talk came down to one sentence: “A product manager helps their team (and company) ship the right product to their users.” I spent most of the talk breaking down that sentence, word by word.
- Helps their team. You’re not the leader. A lot of people think the product manager is the leader. You’re the person who helps make the thing happen. Which means you must …
- Understand your team and your company. Your team is your domain: you have to understand it! And you have to understand how it sits inside the bigger picture, so you can serve the company’s goals and not just yours.
- Ship. We can talk all we want, but at the end of the day, all that matters is putting the product in front of customers.
- The right product for your users. We’ve finally arrived at the job: honing in on what “right” actually means.
How much of that changes in a world of AI?
What is changing
Obviously something has changed, a few things actually. On the one hand, it’s changing how we code, and how fast we can get from an idea to something running. On the other hand, it’s changing what users expect a product to be. I think we’ve barely tapped this, especially in consumer. Being able to describe what you need and have the product deliver it, maybe with agents running in the background, without you having to learn and interface.
There’s no question that the cost of making stuff has collapsed. It’s no longer all that difficult to scope something out and try it; that gives you enormous flexibility. But the cost of judgment hasn’t changed at all. Figuring out what to build is more important now than ever.
Product development is a loop. It used to be that someone had an idea - and it doesn’t have to be you; in a good company it can come from anywhere. You try it. You write a spec, or a product brief, or whatever your name for that document is. There’s some up front cost to it: scoping, designing, arguing - everything that must happen before you spend precious engineering time. These are all rituals that we invented in order to protect engineering time from bad decisions. Because you only got six or eight turns around that loop a year.
Then making things became absurdly cheap. Not somewhat cheaper; a different order of magnitude. And what has happened is really interesting. That old loop is still very much there - just rearranged into a new order.
The old loop went: idea, spec, costing, scoping, everything else, then building. Now:
- First, take the idea and you build it quickly with AI, just to see how it works and how it feels.
- You get to play with it, and figure out how it feels and fits into the overall picture. Prototypes beat “what-ifs”, every time.
- Then you design it. Now that you’ve played with it, you know what it is, and you can actually talk about what it’ll take for this to be more than a prototype. I mean design here in both senses: visual and UX design, and also engineering design.
- Then you ship and learn.
It completely inverts: from spec-and-scope, to build-and-play. I think that changes product management more than anything else happening right now.
This finally means that the spec is no longer the deliverable; for real. You don’t have to start by writing a long document and getting everything right on paper. This used to be true in an aspirational sense, but now it’s just obviously true, in a literal sense.
But I want to be careful, because there’s an equal and opposite mistake you can make.
Demos are almost free now. Working products are not. I keep seeing the flip side of this new approach: “That’s great, just ship it.” That’s still not how it works. We all still have to respect that the distance from a prototype to something real still takes time to cross.
There’s a bit of a trope about product managers, that their job is mostly about asking, “Does it fit in the schedule?” Throw that idea away entirely. The most important question is: Does it fit in the product?
We all have great ideas, and now we all have agents that can code for us. Deciding what to build is officially not a resourcing debate. It is an impact debate. “This or that”, not “this or nothing.” Taste and curation matter a lot here, when you have a vision and you really know what you’re trying to do for the world. But the system you build still has to feel complete.
My biggest worry about AI is that it lets us go faster, and therefore just cram everything in. We talk about “AI slop” in content; this is what AI slop means for product. I’ve seen it happen in a few places already, and I think we’re all a bit worried about it. When anyone can build anything, deciding what to build is the whole job. And that’s a story problem. What story do you want to tell? What story do you want your customers to understand? What story do you want living in their heads?
Your job as a PM is not to write a spec of what the product will do. It is about creating a shared understanding - a shared picture of what we’re doing and why. Why is the user here? What do they feel at each step, and why does that matter? Where is it impressive, and where is it boring? It’s okay for a product to be boring occasionally, as long as you know where. But if you can’t write a good script, the product is going to be dull.
The gift that AI gives you is now you can find this out for free, right up front. You can build it quickly, get a feel for it, play with it, and figure out that one sentence: what does this product do for somebody in their life? Because if you can answer that, you can answer my question: “Are people actually using it?” Because now you’ve said what it does, and you’re asking whether they do it.
What isn’t changing
What does it mean to have a “vision” for your product?
When I say vision, I don’t mean a mission statement. Those matter, but they are not a vision. A vision is the end-to-end reason for the product to exist for users. I have a simple framework for this:
- Purpose. Why is someone picking up your product and putting it in their life?
- Core actions. When they pick it up, what are they actually doing? There can be more than one thing, you have to understand them all.
- Cycle. What is the expected frequency of each of those core actions?
My whole career, as I’ve met with founders and other product people, I ask them: are people using your product? And they almost always jump straight to user data. “We have a 50% DAU/MAU ratio. We crossed 10,000 signups. We’ve got a million people on the waitlist. Our ARR is a million. We’re doing four billion tokens a day. We hit #3 on the App Store.”
Are any of those an answer to the question I asked?
Sometimes I ask the question again, but I add one more word: are people really using your product? And then, sometimes, they clue into what I’m asking about.
LinkedIn’s purpose was to find and be found. Maybe the core action, for some people, was just responding when somebody reached out. For most people that’s not a daily thing; it might be once or twice a year.
Look at that cycle - once or twice a year. Understanding this was critical to LinkedIn working, because the network needed a very large number of people willing to be found, and at least some people doing the finding.
LinkedIn was a social network, after all, so you might be tempted to prod users into taking actions every day. We didn’t do that. Instead, we spent enormous time in the early days on making sure people kept their profiles accurate. It was completely fine if you were only found once or twice a year, as long as when it did happen, you clicked through and understood, “someone’s reaching out to me, that’s great.”
When you’re measuring whether your product is working, those core actions are what matters. Focus on direct traffic: find the people who literally came to you. They have the app installed and hit the icon, or they typed your domain in by hand; they went to you, of their own volition. That’s the traffic that matters, as opposed to all of the other ways you can get somebody back in the moment.
And then only really count the people who perform the core actions. Not “briefly opened the app”, but actually engaged with it. On Discord it would be, “got into a live session. Actually read and sent messages.”
If you can’t define what those core actions are, then you do not have a product, because you don’t have something that you understand.
Now, one thing that’s new, and that I love, is that in AI products where the user is talking to the product, or prompting it in some way, you now have a literal transcript of your user journey. You can see what people are saying in their own words. You can see the exact moment someone gave up and rephrased. You can see what they expected the product to do that it didn’t. READ THESE! AI is great for surfacing things you wouldn’t have seen before, but you can’t have it summarize everything, and you can’t have it form your opinion for you. Forming your opinion - figuring out what the story actually is - is the job and the art of product management.
Onboarding
Onboarding is the single most important moment you have to tell your story to a customer. They’ve discovered your product - maybe through an ad, a viral invite, an article, whatever. They know you exist; they’re curious and want to try it. You will never get this much attention from them ever again.
You have to remember, at this point, that not everyone shows up to your product with the same motivation. There are the eagers. They want in so badly. They’re ready to go. And, just so we’re clear, if you work at the company, you live in eager-land. Everyone internal to your company should be treated like an eager; they’re already steeped in the product every day. When they onboard to the product they think, “I know what I’m doing, this is boring, why is this step here?”
On the other hand there are the fly-bys. They’re just not that into you. They heard about it, checked it out, but the message didn’t land, and they’re going to bail.
Those two kinds of users are the edges of the distribution. In between is a big fuzzy middle. These are people who showed up for a reason: they’re curious! They want to learn more! And you genuinely can convert them into core users of your product. These are the people you need to build around. You’ll get the eagers anyway. The middle is who you need to understand.
Assume your users are motivated and curious. Take the time to introduce the product, step by step. More simple steps beat fewer complex ones. I’ve proven this in A/B tests at multiple companies over the years. If every step is discrete and simple, and it’s clear what you’re asking and what you’re teaching, that beats single large screens, or complex choices to keep the number of steps low. Every time.
So how do you actually build that?
Start by repeating the core message: Here’s what this is for. State the context, inside the product. It’s fine to ask for the basics - email, password, phone. For everything else, explain why you’re asking, and how it relates. Then break your product down into its key concepts, each with a clear action for the user to take.
AI products have made this harder, not easier. You get the blank prompt box. In some ways it’s the worst onboarding screen ever designed. It’s a magic box. It can do anything. So… what do you want to do?
A lot of products nowadays start with, “Hi, I’m here to help, ask me anything!” Speaking for myself, I am not the most articulate or creative person, in that moment. You have to teach capabilities concept by concept. “If you ask something like this, I can do it.” And then let the product do it. Get the user to at least one valuable use case quickly, ideally with their own data, so it’s actually valuable to them.
People ask me sometimes: with a longer flow, won’t more people drop off? Yes! But the ones who get through are far, far more likely to actually use your product. If you’re A/B testing two different onboarding flows, do NOT look at how many people made it to the end of the flow. Look at how many people come back the next day, or the next week, and how many took a core action. If you ask them, at that moment, “What is this product?” they should give you more or less the right answer. Your retention data, from this point forward, is your report card.
A story from Twitter
I’m going to wrap all of this together by telling you a story from Twitter.
I joined Twitter in late 2009. We had a growth problem - except it wasn’t really a growth problem. Twitter was in the news constantly. People were blogging about it, the media was talking about it, and plenty of people were asking: “What is this Twitter thing? I need to go figure it out and sign up.” And then millions of them did. But they never came back.
The problem was that no one could tell you what Twitter was. I can actually prove this:
Caption: “we eventually got to number one.”
The way we were doing onboarding was, people would sign up, and see options to “Find your friends” or “Follow 20 random people”. Most people skipped it, and then landed on a page that looked like this:
This is pretty terrible! It’s a big empty box. People would look at it and think, “...I don’t have anything to say.” And then they’d leave. If you asked them at that moment, “What is Twitter?” they’d say, “I think it’s about saying something to the world? Or finding my friends? I don’t know.”
So we rebuilt onboarding over a couple of years, and found the thing that worked, which was the Learn Flow. We taught them Twitter, one concept at a time, as a story. And it moved retention more than anything else we shipped that year.
The Learn Flow, screen by screen
First, the new home page: “Welcome to Twitter.” We didn’t try to put content there, just: “Find out what’s happening right now with the people and organizations you care about.” That’s a pretty good description of Twitter, honestly.
Then: This is a tweet. It’s a short message, up to 140 characters, and it can contain links. Now you know that tweets are the unit of this thing.
Next you have to build your timeline. So we showed you a timeline. We made you click “follow” on people on the left. And when they click follow, their tweets appeared on the right. So you get the whole idea, in one motion: I click follow, tweets show up, that’s my timeline. Which is the actual concept of Twitter - tweets, following, and a timeline.
And then, finally, your timeline. You’d recognize every account on it, because you had actually followed them yourself.
Onboarding is your story.
The right product for your users
Your job as a product manager is to help your team and your company ship the right product to your users. In a world of AI, the shipping is less of the problem than it used to be. Figuring out the right product, and who your users are, is just as important as it has ever been. If not more.
Always ask whether people are really using your product. Understand what that means. Think about the purpose, the core actions, the cycle. Spend more time on onboarding than feels reasonable. It’s where you convert the fuzzy middle, and it’s where you actually tell the story of your product.
Use AI to go faster on the prototypes — but don’t speed up your judgment. Don’t give up your judgment. Don’t just say, “Well, let’s test it and see.” That’s how you end up with a sloppy product. Keep your judgment everywhere. The hardest part of the job is still balancing all of our creativity as product managers against all the data we now have access to.
Good luck!









